What social impact does climate policy have, for example, on health services, access to basic services and culture? That is the central question at two meetings called ‘social impact analysis’ that the KIN is organizing in April at the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. During the sessions, experts from science and practice will jointly examine the possible social impact of climate policy on the 15 tasks of the National Adaptation Strategy (NAS’26) identified by the Ministry of I&W. This is a recap of the first meeting on April 3, 2025.
The purpose of the Social Impact Analysis is to map the effects of climate policies. Much more than in the first edition, the current National Adaptation Strategy takes into account the social effects of climate policy for citizens and other stakeholders. The KIN is helping to develop a new methodology for this, starting with the development of so-called “adaptation paths” for the 15 designated NAS tasks. In this SIA session at the KNAW, experts from both science and practice will discuss the possible impact of policy on these NAS tasks and which methods and sources can be used for this purpose.
Food for qualitative analysis
KIN scientific figurehead and transition professor Derk Loorbach points out that, based on the X-curve of transitions, we are on the eve of far-reaching decision-making in the field of climate with major social consequences. It is essential to take social consequences and the long term into account. For now, social developments are expressed mainly in quantitative indicators and thus numerically, whereas they also require qualitative interpretation. This SIA offers excellent input for this.
NAS project leader Chantal Oudkerk Pool (Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management) emphasizes that the NAS does not assume a limited time horizon, but is applicable at any moment in time. However, this does not mean that you can exclude all risks to making the Netherlands climate-proof. The NAS, with all the adaptation paths and this SIA, will be ready in the summer of 2026 and will also be available for public inspection.
In the brief discussion that followed with the experts in the room, a few other points were raised. For example, a separate chapter in the NAS will be devoted to the Caribbean Netherlands. According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, little research has been done into the social effects of climate policy on the living environment, even within the European Union. In the cases where this has been done, the focus has been on the past. The question arises as to whether the SIA will use the existing indicators for “broad prosperity” but that is not the plan. The most important aspects of broad prosperity will probably be reflected in the methodology (but in a slightly different form). There is still much to be gained in terms of social impact by linking many existing data sets to data on social impact according to UMC Utrecht. For the NAS it is important to uncover as much social knowledge and information as possible and to link it. It is important to include this in policy-making from the start of the design!
Effects of climate policy on 5 main themes
In smaller theme groups, the first interpretation of the possible effects of climate policy is outlined. This is done on the basis of five main themes: Health, Affordability, Access to Basic Services, Culture and Influence and Legitimacy. In addition to the possible effects, possible methodologies are also mapped out, as well as the sources and data to visualize and analyze this. Some points that have been identified by the theme groups per theme are:
Health
- Exposure to water and air pollution has a major impact on people’s mental and physical health.
- There is a lot of data on morbidity etc., but it is important to combine different types of data.
- Include input from disciplines such as Citizen Science and indirect/co-benefit.
- Adopt a holistic perspective on the effects on health.
Affordability
- Climate measures will increase the cost of housing, energy and transportation, among other things, which will lead to increased social tension and uncertainty.
- This could affect the livelihoods of many and seriously increase inequality in society.
- Differences between regions, age groups, cities and rural areas, etc. must be carefully considered.
- There are many data sets available from sources such as Statistics Netherlands, but these are often more focused on the economy and prosperity than on social issues and welfare. There is much to be gained by combining these with, for example, more socially focused research into happiness, health and experiences.
Access to basic services
- Climate measures can lead to exclusion
- We must find new methods to accurately predict the future and access aspects.
Culture
- Climate policy can lead to increased polarization in society and distrust of the government.
- Pay attention to regional differences and differences between generations.
- Consider social cohesion and neighborliness.
- The sense of security can change, whereby “safe dikes” become less decisive
- The appreciation of landscapes and “pride for Holland” can also change
Influence and legitimacy
- Today’s winners can be tomorrow’s losers
- Efficacy (effectiveness) and feelings of representation will change
- Pay attention to polarization effects: these can be measured
- Also affects legal protection and human rights
- The perception of perspective for action/control among citizens is primarily a qualitative factor
The next step
A follow-up session will take place on April 17. In this session, the results of the 1st session will be further elaborated and operationalized and linked to the adaptation paths. We will also capture the main findings of this session in a retrospective.
